Oh don't get me wrong here ... there'll probably be huge monetary compensation. But, for the most part Alex Baldwin is an outstanding member of society ... productive, contributor, etc ... the legal system won't pursue jail time on him. Too many other bigger fish to fry.
What they need to be doing is ONE ... finding out how that live round got on the set and into that gun that Alex had. It didn't get there by mistake. And I'm pretty sure a LIVE round, especially a 45 cal round would be very distinquishable over a blank round. So, whoever put the rounds in the gun are the first ones to investigate. Sounds like a set up to me.
Why did Baldwin draw that gun on the woman in the first place? Was he coaxed in some way?
Why would the producers even have a gun, capable of firing live rounds on the set?
Those old style of guns had very little safety measures on them. You pull the hammer back, they're liable to discharge on their own; the hammer locks not always reliable to hold even with a very light touch of the trigger mechs.