2016 should be interesting. If the Republicans were a cohesive ******* they would likely be a shoo in. But as you mention the party is split 4 ways and it is unlikely that they will patch things up in a year, they will try but the polarization that has been worsening for 50 years will prevent it.
Obama came to office prepared to be king not president. Some of his unilateral decisions will show him to be a great president if they work.
They started putting bandaids on ACA as soon as it went into effect. One thing I am very curious about is to what degree individual medical records were compromised by the ACA website. The first step to hacking a system is to break it and the website went online broken. However it may take years to accurately assess the damage.
What happens in Iran is going to be interesting. If the treaty holds and Iran doesn't get nuclear weapons then President Obama is a genius and his foreign policy approach is vindicated. However one of the intelligence services I subscribe to feels they will have a nuclear weapon within a year. Building a pure fission device up to about 1 megaton is really pretty simple. The big problem is acquiring the fissionable material to make the bomb. Apparently the treaty allows them to possess Plutonium. That is very bad. The Hiroshima bomb was around 15 kilotons and the Nagasaki bomb was around 20 kilotons. So being able to build a low tech bomb up to just under a kiloton is a very bad thing.
There were a number of things that you mentioned that are issues such as prosecutions he didn't order, the Bergdahl affair and a host of other things. Deficits are projected to start rising next year and are projected to continue to increase until around 2020 and then things are going to hit critical mass. Doesn't make any difference who is sitting in the big chair. ACA relied heavily on subsidized premiums to fly and in the next few years the money simply isn't going to be there to do it. ACA was never all that comprehensive in the first place. President Obama hung out a big carrot in the form of subsidizing the state programs. The states were expected to clean any mess left by ACA and the financial carrot that was initially offered was/is substantial. However as I have said earlier deficits are expected to start to rise next year and in very short order there isn't going to be the money to continue subsidizing at current levels.
One of the biggest disappointment for me was the state of race relations and plight of many black Americans. Racial tensions in this country are the worst I have seen in 30 or more years. Black unemployment still runs twice the rate it does for white Americans.
Ross Perot really had a decent shot at the White House. At least he did until he started with the conspiracy stuff which might or might not have been true, but he came off as a flake.
A good part of our Federal debt is rather interesting because it doesn't come from the Federal Government per se. A lot of out debt is from the money borrowed by the Federal Reserve for the QE program. Initially the the Fed just ran the printing presses and printed more money. The problem with that is you can have serious increases in inflation or even run away inflation by flooding the economy with cash. However borrowing too much money can dry up the supply and interest rates go up. High inflation in a recessionary economy can cause a lot of problems. The other thing is if the money supply dries up interest rates go up which can stifle a recovery. The balancing act is a pretty fine line. Personally I think they shouldn't have gotten involved. I have done well with QE, it has pushed the stock marker well above where it would be expected in today's economy. The problem is when QE ends the market will likely suffer a major correction. I expect to have my retirement else where by then. Of course people that were relying or savings got screwed because inflation, even at the current low rate exceeds the interest rate paid often by a factor of two or more.
As to a third party. In many ways the mood of the country is a lot like it was in the 1960's with Black Americans. When MLK came along Black Americans had reached a boiling point. He was at the right time and place. If he had arrived in 1900 or even 1930 or 1940 I doubt he would have been anymore than a minor footnote in history. I really think that a majority of people have come to see the Federal Government for what it is. So with a good leader I think a third party is viable.
Well, Iran will have a nuclear bomb within five years, much less ten. Book it. Winning that wager is easy money compared to betting on basketball games. What Iran has done in the last ten years has already decided that. Taking out Iran's nuclear program with bombs is not like bombing Iraq's nuclear reactor several years ago. Iran's nuclear program is spread over a large area, some close to population centers, others in mountainous terrain. Perhaps it was inevitable they would get one.
I blame President Obama for many things, but I am not sure we could have prevented what is coming via Iran's nuclear program. What is odious is Obama's stance that this is not a treaty. He never intended to run this by Congress, and will veto the Repubs attempt by legislation to make him do so. But Pres Obama is not the first President to abuse executive power, although Will makes a good case he is the most brazen, with the widest interpretation.
You mentioned QE. I can explain QE as well as anyone. But those reading this who are interested in it already understand it. Suffice it to say, QE is a BFD.
The market being closed last Friday has probably took the shock out of the unfavorable jobs report, which also came out Friday. I have not checked Wall Street this am, but the report and the other earnings report will contribute to a poor showing for awhile. But again, those who understand QE [the printing of money is a related issue] know that this will make the Fed pull back on interest hikes, which most likely will make the market rally again.
Anyone who can predict when the Fed will finally start raising interest rates for sure, please let me know. I will send a box of chocolates. Most likely, they will not do it until after the November 2016 elections.
As those that follow Wall Street realize, the markets are also influenced by the general state of the economy, price earnings ratios, etc. But not as much as a rational person thinks. The U.S.is internationally still one of the safest places to invest, with a sound economy and government, which helps investment, too.
It was so predictable 2-3 years ago, when Congress had the big standoff over the budget, and the looming sequester, that the markets would tank. But they came back in 2-3 months. Next time we faced the same crisis, the markets had already been through this shock. Next time, no big deal. The market adjusts to most anything-the next time it happens.
Obviously, if and when we start having domestic terrorism that kills Americans here in the thousands, we will more severe problems than the stock market-loss of life, loss of liberty, etc. But Wall Street will absolutely hit the shitter-perhaps for 2-3 years. Then...it will come back, and possibly not crater with the next terrorism event that kills several thousand. But if we have a series of domestic terrorism events, with large losses of life and/or property, I am not sure the market will come back, at least in my lifetime.
As a former athlete, the lows following crucial losses were always more impactful than the highs following crucial wins. Coaches say much the same thing-they remember the losses more than the wins.
But I feel just the opposite with the stock market. I hurt when my stocks go down. But that hurt is not as bad as the regret when I miss a run up in stocks. That is why I stay mostly with mutual funds these days-less predictions to worry about.
