I'm not the history buff you seem to be Torp, but I believe WW2 and UKs withdrawal from India in the late 1940's were the prime causes ... UK was simply too beat up, and their economy weak, from fighting 2 world wars.
UK bail on the euro
- Thread starter megoman
- Start date
My short the pound call was spot on, check what I just read today:
British Pound to Test 2017 Lows v Euro Again Within 3 Months say Strategists
Written by Will Peters on 27 April 2017
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Strategists at Credit Suisse have taken a conviction line on their forecast for the Pound to fall against the Euro by announcing a trade recommendation that seeks to take advantage of the decline
- Quotes
- Pound to Euro exchange rate today: 1.1861, up 0.65% on the day's opening rate
- Euro to Pound Sterling exchange rate today: 0.8432
Credit Suisse say they are confident in betting that the Pound has reaped as much possible strength as it can against the Euro from Theresa May’s decision to call a June 8 election, and it must come down.
Furthermore, a core conviction at Credit Suisse is the Euro is due to make a concerted move higher over coming months.
Shahab Jalinoos, a research analyst with Credit Suisse in Zurich, says he is concerned that his bank’s existing trade recommendation portfolio does not fully reflect their EUR-bullish stance and hence they are looking to increase exposure to the Euro by betting on a rise in EUR/GBP.
“We buy a 25 July 2017 expiry EUR/GBP call spread, strikes 0.8500 and 0.8800. The trade was entered at 0.8492,” says Jalinoos in a client briefing dated April 26.
This is a technical way of saying ‘we are taking out a bet on a rise in the Euro against the Pound’.
For Pound to Euro watchers the above levels translate as follows: 0.85 = 1.1765 and 0.88 = 1.1364.
“This trade reflects our three-month EUR/GBP 0.8800 forecast,” says Jalinoos. The bottom line? Credit Suisse believe at some point in the next three months the Pound to Euro rate will fall below 1.1364.
If the exchange rate finishes above the 0.88 at expiry, it will generate the trader roughly a 2.25% net return.
Pound Sterling Live have also this week reported that JP Morgan have entered a similar trade to take advantage of EUR/GBP gains. More details of their reasoning and structuring of the trade can be found here.
Ref: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.po...uros-exchange-rate-credit-suisse-strategy/amp
Cuckcouple777
Couple
Ummm elections coming up in uk and macron winning first round of french election has caused this, why would anyone want to support a globalists governmentMy short the pound call was spot on, check what I just read today:
British Pound to Test 2017 Lows v Euro Again Within 3 Months say Strategists
Written by Will Peters on 27 April 2017
Subscribe to our Newsletter
Strategists at Credit Suisse have taken a conviction line on their forecast for the Pound to fall against the Euro by announcing a trade recommendation that seeks to take advantage of the decline
Most institutions hold forecasts for currency pairs, but when they announce a trade recommendation it is taken as a sign of high conviction in the call.
- Quotes
- Pound to Euro exchange rate today: 1.1861, up 0.65% on the day's opening rate
- Euro to Pound Sterling exchange rate today: 0.8432
Credit Suisse say they are confident in betting that the Pound has reaped as much possible strength as it can against the Euro from Theresa May’s decision to call a June 8 election, and it must come down.
Furthermore, a core conviction at Credit Suisse is the Euro is due to make a concerted move higher over coming months.
Shahab Jalinoos, a research analyst with Credit Suisse in Zurich, says he is concerned that his bank’s existing trade recommendation portfolio does not fully reflect their EUR-bullish stance and hence they are looking to increase exposure to the Euro by betting on a rise in EUR/GBP.
“We buy a 25 July 2017 expiry EUR/GBP call spread, strikes 0.8500 and 0.8800. The trade was entered at 0.8492,” says Jalinoos in a client briefing dated April 26.
This is a technical way of saying ‘we are taking out a bet on a rise in the Euro against the Pound’.
For Pound to Euro watchers the above levels translate as follows: 0.85 = 1.1765 and 0.88 = 1.1364.
“This trade reflects our three-month EUR/GBP 0.8800 forecast,” says Jalinoos. The bottom line? Credit Suisse believe at some point in the next three months the Pound to Euro rate will fall below 1.1364.
If the exchange rate finishes above the 0.88 at expiry, it will generate the trader roughly a 2.25% net return.
Pound Sterling Live have also this week reported that JP Morgan have entered a similar trade to take advantage of EUR/GBP gains. More details of their reasoning and structuring of the trade can be found here.
Ref: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.po...uros-exchange-rate-credit-suisse-strategy/amp
Good question.
So are you saying that all people who voted against another term of progressive "we know what's best for you", politically correct garbage are racist ? I see a more subtle but just as destructive form of racism practiced by the left in the U.S. and Europe.
D
Deleted125623
Guest
Will Brexit be good for Britain? Academics say THESE four tests will judge Brexit success
FOUR tests will be able to judge if Brexit is a success for Britain, according to a new report. But what are the tests?
By Alice Foster
PUBLISHED: 18:06, Tue, Jan 31, 2017 | UPDATED: 18:28, Tue, Jan 31, 2017
Theresa May has repeatedly said the Government will “make a success” of Brexit but there is still uncertainty over whether she can fulfil her promise.
In order to help clear up the confusion, the UK in a Changing Europe initiative’s latest report sets out the four economic tests to measure the success of Brexit.
Its director, Professor Anand Menon, said there needs to be a clear, evidence-based and, as far as possible, objective mechanism for assessing the impact of Brexit.
PA
Theresa May has promise to make Brexit a success
Related articles
“We are now entering a period when the choices we make, collectively, will determine our future for decades.
“We all have a stake in making a success of Brexit. But to do that we need to have a shared vision of what success means and these tests lay the groundwork for that objective judgement.”
As the British Government prepares to begin Brexit talks with the EU, here is a look at the four key economic tests for Brexit.
1. The economy and the public finances: Will Brexit make us better off?
The question of whether Britain would be better off inside or outside the European Union was hotly contested during the referendum campaign.
“As the Chancellor put it, nobody voted for (or indeed against) Brexit to make us poorer. A successful Brexit will be one that makes us better-off overall,” the report said.
2. Fairness: Will Brexit make Britain fairer?
The referendum campaign crystallised a view that many Britons had been “left behind” by economic growth and globalisation since joining the EU, according to the report.
“A successful Brexit will be one that genuinely increases citizens’ control over their own lives,” it added.
Brexit: What does it mean for you?
Wed, July 13, 2016
How will pensions, mortgages & house prices be affected by Brexit?
There’s nothing to stop a post-Brexit Government giving £100m more a week to the NHS but other areas also require funding
3. Openness: Will Brexit make the UK a more or less open economy and society?
Mrs May has painted a vision of a “global Britain” after Britain leaves the EU and strikes free trade deals with countries around the world.
The report said: “A successful Brexit will be one that maintains and enhances the UK’s position as an open economy and society.”
4. Control: Will Britain increase the democratic control of the British people over their own destiny?
At heart of the Leave campaign was the promise to ‘take back control’ over immigration as well as the laws that govern our nation.
Brexit will end the supremacy of EU law over Britain’s own legislation and the British Government will be able get rid of unwanted EU rules.
The report said: “A successful Brexit will be one that genuinely increases citizens’ control over their own lives.”
FOUR tests will be able to judge if Brexit is a success for Britain, according to a new report. But what are the tests?
By Alice Foster
PUBLISHED: 18:06, Tue, Jan 31, 2017 | UPDATED: 18:28, Tue, Jan 31, 2017
Theresa May has repeatedly said the Government will “make a success” of Brexit but there is still uncertainty over whether she can fulfil her promise.
In order to help clear up the confusion, the UK in a Changing Europe initiative’s latest report sets out the four economic tests to measure the success of Brexit.
Its director, Professor Anand Menon, said there needs to be a clear, evidence-based and, as far as possible, objective mechanism for assessing the impact of Brexit.
Theresa May has promise to make Brexit a success
Related articles
- 'Take another look' EU chief urges Trump to ABANDON protectionism
- BREXIT U-TURN: Lobby group changes stance on 'straightjacket' EU bloc
“We are now entering a period when the choices we make, collectively, will determine our future for decades.
“We all have a stake in making a success of Brexit. But to do that we need to have a shared vision of what success means and these tests lay the groundwork for that objective judgement.”
As the British Government prepares to begin Brexit talks with the EU, here is a look at the four key economic tests for Brexit.
1. The economy and the public finances: Will Brexit make us better off?
The question of whether Britain would be better off inside or outside the European Union was hotly contested during the referendum campaign.
“As the Chancellor put it, nobody voted for (or indeed against) Brexit to make us poorer. A successful Brexit will be one that makes us better-off overall,” the report said.
2. Fairness: Will Brexit make Britain fairer?
The referendum campaign crystallised a view that many Britons had been “left behind” by economic growth and globalisation since joining the EU, according to the report.
“A successful Brexit will be one that genuinely increases citizens’ control over their own lives,” it added.
Brexit: What does it mean for you?
Wed, July 13, 2016
How will pensions, mortgages & house prices be affected by Brexit?
There’s nothing to stop a post-Brexit Government giving £100m more a week to the NHS but other areas also require funding
3. Openness: Will Brexit make the UK a more or less open economy and society?
Mrs May has painted a vision of a “global Britain” after Britain leaves the EU and strikes free trade deals with countries around the world.
The report said: “A successful Brexit will be one that maintains and enhances the UK’s position as an open economy and society.”
4. Control: Will Britain increase the democratic control of the British people over their own destiny?
At heart of the Leave campaign was the promise to ‘take back control’ over immigration as well as the laws that govern our nation.
Brexit will end the supremacy of EU law over Britain’s own legislation and the British Government will be able get rid of unwanted EU rules.
The report said: “A successful Brexit will be one that genuinely increases citizens’ control over their own lives.”
D
Deleted125623
Guest
'They've switched sides!' Now even MACRON says France should leave EU if it doesn't reform
EUROPHILE French presidential frontrunner Emmanuel Macron shocked the Brussels establishment today as he declared that France should leave the European Union if it does not press ahead with serious reform.
By Nick Gutteridge, Brussels Correspondent and Monika Pallenberg
PUBLISHED: 14:42, Mon, May 1, 2017 | UPDATED: 15:48, Mon, May 1, 2017
Emmanuel Macron stresses the importance of an EU reform
In an interview strikingly similar in tone to the arguments of many eurosceptics the centrist candidate warned Frexit would still be a serious possibility even if he wins the keys to the Elysee.
German media drily noted after the remarks that the pro-EU former banker had “switched sides” with populist Marine Le Pen, who has softened her own eurosceptic stance in recent weeks to appeal to moderate voters.
GETTY
Emmanuel Macron has said the EU must reform
Related articles
His strikingly candid remarks on the state of the European project came as opinion polls showed the former Front National leader making inroads into his lead, albeit she remains some distance behind.
And they indicate that whoever wins the second round of the presidential election on Sunday is likely to pursue a radically different policy towards Brussels than the outgoing Francois Hollande.
GETTY
Marine Le Pen has watered down her own policies on Europe
In an interview with the BBC, Mr Macron said: “I'm a pro-European, I defended constantly during this election the European idea and European policies because I believe it's extremely important for French people and for the place of our country in globalisation.
“But at the same time we have to face the situation, to listen to our people, and to listen to the fact that they are extremely angry today, impatient and the dysfunction of the EU is no more sustainable.
“So I do consider that my mandate, the day after, will be at the same time to reform in depth the European Union and our European project.”
French protestors march against BOTH Macron and Le Pen
The dysfunction of the EU is no more sustainable.
Emmanuel Macron
The europhile centrist said that failing to press for serious reform of the EU during his first four years would be a “betrayal” of both the project and the French people.
And he predicted that if it fails to adapt Ms Le Pen and the Front National will come back even stronger in 2021, when pro-EU forces may no longer be strong enough to keep them out of power.
Mr Macron said French people were “angry and impatient” with the current state of the EU project and would not give Brussels long to prove it was snot “dysfunctional and no longer viable”.
Pressed on whether he would pursue the status quo set by My Hollande, he replied he would not and said: “And I don't want to do so. Because the day after, we will have a Frexit or we will have the National Front (FN) again.”
Shocking riots in Paris during the French presidential election
Mon, April 24, 2017
Demonstrators clash with riot police after partial results in the first round of 2017 French presidential election, in Paris
A member of feminist activist group Femen is detained by a police officer as they protest against French presidential election candidate Marine Le Pen
In contrast Ms Le Pen has sensationally stood aside as leader of her party and announced more moderate right-winger Nicolas Dupont-Aignan as her pick for prime minister in a bid to woo mainstream voters.
Last week the populist leader appeared to water down her policies towards Brussels, saying she would seek a “soft exit” from the EU rather than simply ditching the euro currency.
Polls predict that Mr Macron, who is being championed by the usually impartial EU Commission amongst others, will win Sunday’s contest by a margin of around 60 to 40 per cent.
EUROPHILE French presidential frontrunner Emmanuel Macron shocked the Brussels establishment today as he declared that France should leave the European Union if it does not press ahead with serious reform.
By Nick Gutteridge, Brussels Correspondent and Monika Pallenberg
PUBLISHED: 14:42, Mon, May 1, 2017 | UPDATED: 15:48, Mon, May 1, 2017
Emmanuel Macron stresses the importance of an EU reform
In an interview strikingly similar in tone to the arguments of many eurosceptics the centrist candidate warned Frexit would still be a serious possibility even if he wins the keys to the Elysee.
German media drily noted after the remarks that the pro-EU former banker had “switched sides” with populist Marine Le Pen, who has softened her own eurosceptic stance in recent weeks to appeal to moderate voters.
Emmanuel Macron has said the EU must reform
Related articles
His strikingly candid remarks on the state of the European project came as opinion polls showed the former Front National leader making inroads into his lead, albeit she remains some distance behind.
And they indicate that whoever wins the second round of the presidential election on Sunday is likely to pursue a radically different policy towards Brussels than the outgoing Francois Hollande.
Marine Le Pen has watered down her own policies on Europe
In an interview with the BBC, Mr Macron said: “I'm a pro-European, I defended constantly during this election the European idea and European policies because I believe it's extremely important for French people and for the place of our country in globalisation.
“But at the same time we have to face the situation, to listen to our people, and to listen to the fact that they are extremely angry today, impatient and the dysfunction of the EU is no more sustainable.
“So I do consider that my mandate, the day after, will be at the same time to reform in depth the European Union and our European project.”
French protestors march against BOTH Macron and Le Pen
The dysfunction of the EU is no more sustainable.
Emmanuel Macron
The europhile centrist said that failing to press for serious reform of the EU during his first four years would be a “betrayal” of both the project and the French people.
And he predicted that if it fails to adapt Ms Le Pen and the Front National will come back even stronger in 2021, when pro-EU forces may no longer be strong enough to keep them out of power.
Mr Macron said French people were “angry and impatient” with the current state of the EU project and would not give Brussels long to prove it was snot “dysfunctional and no longer viable”.
Pressed on whether he would pursue the status quo set by My Hollande, he replied he would not and said: “And I don't want to do so. Because the day after, we will have a Frexit or we will have the National Front (FN) again.”
Shocking riots in Paris during the French presidential election
Mon, April 24, 2017
Demonstrators clash with riot police after partial results in the first round of 2017 French presidential election, in Paris
A member of feminist activist group Femen is detained by a police officer as they protest against French presidential election candidate Marine Le Pen
In contrast Ms Le Pen has sensationally stood aside as leader of her party and announced more moderate right-winger Nicolas Dupont-Aignan as her pick for prime minister in a bid to woo mainstream voters.
Last week the populist leader appeared to water down her policies towards Brussels, saying she would seek a “soft exit” from the EU rather than simply ditching the euro currency.
Polls predict that Mr Macron, who is being championed by the usually impartial EU Commission amongst others, will win Sunday’s contest by a margin of around 60 to 40 per cent.
D
Deleted125623
Guest
REVEALED: Brussels moves to INCREASE Britain's exit bill to plug EU's budget black hole
BRUSSELS has catapulted the bill Britain will have to pay for leaving the European Union to the top of its Brexit agenda and will now seek to bolt on extra requirements as it scrambles to plug a massive budget black hole.
By Nick Gutteridge, Brussels Correspondent
PUBLISHED: 12:59, Fri, Apr 28, 2017 | UPDATED: 14:42, Fri, Apr 28, 2017
Chuka Umunna urges Theresa May to PAY Brexit bill
Senior EU officials today revealed that member states were “unanimous” on the fact that the UK must settle up on its financial commitments before trade talks can start and appeared to increase the potential scope of the final amount to be paid.
At a briefing to the Brussels press corps eurocrats said they had been “really surprised” by the determination of the other 27 member states to ensure that getting Britain to cough up was included as a top priority in the negotiations.
GETTY
Theresa May met with Jean-Claude Juncker this week
Related articles
And they hinted that the “global amount” that the UK will be billed will now include “political” commitments the UK has signed up to, which includes programmes like the Turkey refugee package which could run for years or even decades to come.
That would push the final bill beyond the £50bn being mooted and today senior EU officials stressed that they will not budge on the issue, setting themselves up for a showdown with Downing Street which has indicated it is not prepared to pay the full amount.
Yesterday at a meeting of the EU’s general affairs council in Luxembourg the bloc’s foreign ministers were adamant that Britain would have to honour its financial commitments for the current Multi-Annual Financial Framework (MFF).
The instrument, which was agreed in 2014 and sets EU spending priorities for seven years, runs until 2021 meaning Theresa May will be expected to continue sending money to Brussels for more than a year after the UK has left the bloc.
One top eurocrat with knowledge of the negotiations told reporters: “Various states have certain sensibilities, but what really surprised me - and I think this will be important in the context of whether sufficient progress has been made - is the unanimous view on the financial settlement.
“I have never seen net payers and net contributors working so closely together to make sure that the financial settlement should be part of this sufficient progress.”
In its Brexit negotiating guidelines the EU has made clear that talks on a future trade deal with Britain can only begin when "sufficient progress" has been made in three key areas - citizens' residency rights, keeping an open border in Northern Ireland and the Brexit bill.
And asked whether or not there would be any wiggle room on the final amount, the official replied that they could not speculate because Michel Barnier had not yet produced his report detailing a breakdown of the commitments the UK has made.
But they warned the UK: “There are issues on which Member States agree and there are those on which they disagree. But apparently on Brexit all the 27 have the same position.”
However, the official did add that senior European figures “appreciated” the change of tone in the debate in the UK about the possibility of a no-deal scenario, and added there was now more “realism” in Downing Street about the consequences of not reaching a settlement.
Earlier this year Theresa May caused consternation in Brussels when she said that "no deal is better than a bad one" - something which was interpreted by eurocrats as a direct threat to sabotage the negotiations.
Live pictures: May meets Juncker and Barnier
Wed, April 26, 2017
Theresa May hosts European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and chief negotiator Michel Barnier at Downing Street for the first face-to-face talks since she triggered the two-year process of withdrawing from the EU
Prime Minister Theresa May greets European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker ahead of a working dinner at 10 Downing Street, London
The EU is facing a £10bn a year black hole in its finances after Brexit which could create severe political problems for the bloc at a time when it is already facing growing pressure from populist politicians.
Net contributors to the project, like Germany, Austria and the Netherlands, want to streamline and downsize its gargantuan operations like the EU Commission and to rein in spending to cover the shortfall.
But Southern European countries, which have faced years of punishing austerity and sluggish growth, want a cash injection to boost economic activity and feel this should be provided by those countries which have benefitted the most economically from the euro currency.
Meanwhile the eastern bloc, the most recent additions to the club, are determined to fiercely protect the social cohesion fund which has pumped billions of pounds into their region over the last decades from being cut.
BRUSSELS has catapulted the bill Britain will have to pay for leaving the European Union to the top of its Brexit agenda and will now seek to bolt on extra requirements as it scrambles to plug a massive budget black hole.
By Nick Gutteridge, Brussels Correspondent
PUBLISHED: 12:59, Fri, Apr 28, 2017 | UPDATED: 14:42, Fri, Apr 28, 2017
Chuka Umunna urges Theresa May to PAY Brexit bill
Senior EU officials today revealed that member states were “unanimous” on the fact that the UK must settle up on its financial commitments before trade talks can start and appeared to increase the potential scope of the final amount to be paid.
At a briefing to the Brussels press corps eurocrats said they had been “really surprised” by the determination of the other 27 member states to ensure that getting Britain to cough up was included as a top priority in the negotiations.
Theresa May met with Jean-Claude Juncker this week
Related articles
And they hinted that the “global amount” that the UK will be billed will now include “political” commitments the UK has signed up to, which includes programmes like the Turkey refugee package which could run for years or even decades to come.
That would push the final bill beyond the £50bn being mooted and today senior EU officials stressed that they will not budge on the issue, setting themselves up for a showdown with Downing Street which has indicated it is not prepared to pay the full amount.
Yesterday at a meeting of the EU’s general affairs council in Luxembourg the bloc’s foreign ministers were adamant that Britain would have to honour its financial commitments for the current Multi-Annual Financial Framework (MFF).
The instrument, which was agreed in 2014 and sets EU spending priorities for seven years, runs until 2021 meaning Theresa May will be expected to continue sending money to Brussels for more than a year after the UK has left the bloc.
One top eurocrat with knowledge of the negotiations told reporters: “Various states have certain sensibilities, but what really surprised me - and I think this will be important in the context of whether sufficient progress has been made - is the unanimous view on the financial settlement.
“I have never seen net payers and net contributors working so closely together to make sure that the financial settlement should be part of this sufficient progress.”
In its Brexit negotiating guidelines the EU has made clear that talks on a future trade deal with Britain can only begin when "sufficient progress" has been made in three key areas - citizens' residency rights, keeping an open border in Northern Ireland and the Brexit bill.
And asked whether or not there would be any wiggle room on the final amount, the official replied that they could not speculate because Michel Barnier had not yet produced his report detailing a breakdown of the commitments the UK has made.
But they warned the UK: “There are issues on which Member States agree and there are those on which they disagree. But apparently on Brexit all the 27 have the same position.”
However, the official did add that senior European figures “appreciated” the change of tone in the debate in the UK about the possibility of a no-deal scenario, and added there was now more “realism” in Downing Street about the consequences of not reaching a settlement.
Earlier this year Theresa May caused consternation in Brussels when she said that "no deal is better than a bad one" - something which was interpreted by eurocrats as a direct threat to sabotage the negotiations.
Live pictures: May meets Juncker and Barnier
Wed, April 26, 2017
Theresa May hosts European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and chief negotiator Michel Barnier at Downing Street for the first face-to-face talks since she triggered the two-year process of withdrawing from the EU
Prime Minister Theresa May greets European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker ahead of a working dinner at 10 Downing Street, London
The EU is facing a £10bn a year black hole in its finances after Brexit which could create severe political problems for the bloc at a time when it is already facing growing pressure from populist politicians.
Net contributors to the project, like Germany, Austria and the Netherlands, want to streamline and downsize its gargantuan operations like the EU Commission and to rein in spending to cover the shortfall.
But Southern European countries, which have faced years of punishing austerity and sluggish growth, want a cash injection to boost economic activity and feel this should be provided by those countries which have benefitted the most economically from the euro currency.
Meanwhile the eastern bloc, the most recent additions to the club, are determined to fiercely protect the social cohesion fund which has pumped billions of pounds into their region over the last decades from being cut.
D
Deleted125623
Guest
Heres something for a few to consider.
1. The European mainland banking systems and institutions have a black hole of 714 BILLION Euro's. It is estimated that by 2020 15% of those institutions will cease to exist or be in serious trouble covering losses and debts..
Eurozone banks' £715bn black hole threatens economy: IMF report accuses EU of failing to address huge problems affecting the financial sector
Published: 00:44 BST, 14 April 2016 | Updated: 13:37 BST, 14 April 2016
Banks in the eurozone have a £715billion black hole in their books, posing serious danger to the stability of the European and global economy.
In a hard-hitting report, the International Monetary Fund accused the EU of failing to address the huge problems affecting European banks.
It hit out at banks in Greece, Italy, Portugal and 'some large German' banks for not tackling 'non-performing (bad) loans and excess banking capacity'.
Some 15 per cent of banks in advanced countries, most of them in Europe, 'face significant problems in attaining profitability,' the fund warned.
It also called on the US to fully repair mortgage intermediaries Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac which were at the centre of the 2008 financial crisis.
The International Monetary Fund (pictured, IMF managing director Christine Lagarde) accused the EU of failing to address the huge problems affecting European banks. This woman is also under investigation for fruad...
The IMF's report warns that risks to world financial stability have increased in the last six months and if they are not addressed with urgency 4 per cent could be wiped off global growth by 2021 – the equivalent of one year of world output.
The IMF's top enforcer Jose Vinals said: 'Disruptions to global bond and stock markets could increase the risks of tipping the world into a more serious and prolonged slowdown marked by financial and economic stagnation.'
His words echoed those of Chancellor George Osborne who warned in last month's Budget of a 'dangerous cocktail' of risks.
IMF concerns about the safety of European banking will bolster 'Brexit' campaigners who fear if the UK stays in the EU it may have to pick up part of the bill for Europe's banking implosion.
Mr Vinals, director of the IMF monetary and capital markets department, said the fund would consider the impact of a withdrawal on London's role as Europe's financial centre, when it produces its report card on the UK economy next month.
The fund's decision to continue with its annual inspection of the economy ahead of the EU referendum on June 23 is certain to be seen as controversial. In 2010 it postponed its survey until after the general election for fear of being drawn into the political debate.
Mr Vinals said in Washington: 'If it turns out Britain exits the European Union, given that Britain's banks are able to operate in the EU by using the passport, this is something that will be a significant change for a number of financial institutions that operate in London at an EU level. An exit of Britain from the EU would be a negative shock economically and financially to Britain and to the EU, and that would be negative for confidence including confidence to the City of London as a global financial hub.'
+2
The IMF hit out at banks in Greece, Italy, Portugal and 'some large German' banks for not tackling 'non-performing loans and excess banking capacity'
After a rocky start to 2016, when oil prices were in freefall, financial markets have stabilised in recent weeks. But the IMF is clear that the danger is far from over. Global economic risks have risen, as falling commodity prices and China's slowdown continue to put pressure on credit markets in advanced countries.
Long-term interest rates, viewed as a signal of impending doom, are at record lows in several countries.
The share of government bonds or debts in the eurozone which offer no return or negative returns soared from 33 per cent at the end of last year to 43 per cent in February, foreshadowing the possibility of a slump. There are also concerns that central banks in Europe, Japan and other advanced regions are running out of tools to deal with another drop in financial markets.
The IMF warns that banks in Germany, Italy, Portugal and Spain are the most 'vulnerable' while those in the UK, France and the Netherlands 'may be better positioned'.
Outside Europe the major uncertainty is commodity prices which have fallen 60 per cent, causing recession in emerging economies.
2. Junckers himself was and still is responsible for the Development project funds at the EU . Yet he 'personaly is allowing a 254 BILLION black hole to develope.
UK faces £34bn bill for black hole in EU budget
EU accused of financial mismanagement after auditors find huge black hole in the Brussels budget
The shortfall is known in Brussels jargon as “reste à liquider”, or “outstanding amount” Photo: Alamy
1:53PM GMT 26 Nov 2014
Auditors have identified a black hole in European Union budgets that could lead to extra demands for cash from the British taxpayer of up to £34 billion over the next six years.
David Cameron will be legally obliged to make up a share of a shortfall of £259 billion by 2020 with liabilities for the Treasury estimated at £33.7bn, calculated at the usual rate of Britain’s EU contributions.
The hole in EU spending has been identified by the European Court of Auditors and represents a political disaster for the Prime Minister who has made repeated pledges to bring down the amount Britain pays into Brussels budgets.
“The EU’s ability to just grab money from taxpayers whenever it wants is an outrage. It underlines what is structurally wrong with our relationship under the existing treaties," said Bernard Jenkin MP, the chairman of the House of Commons public administration select committee.
"The UK parliament should decide how much we want to pay the EU not bureaucrats in Brussels."
In a special report earlier this week, EU auditors identified the sum in outstanding bills for legally binding spending commitments made by the European Commission over the last four years.
“Assuming that commitments will not be de-committed, and we don’t see how most of them could, it might be problematic to get this money from member states to finance the expenditure foreseen,” Igor Ludborzs, an EU auditor, told the Euractiv website.
“We don’t see a happy ending. The amounts are getting bigger and bigger.”
Eurosceptic Conservative MPs are "spitting with rage" at the prospect of increased EU contributions and a failure to control Brussels' spending at a time when Britain is making cuts to balance the budget.
“The commission is out of control and needs to be brought back under control. This is a problem with having no real democratic check to the EU. The commission writes cheques without any balances," said Jacob Rees Mogg, Tory MP for North East Somerset and member of the Commons European scrutiny committee.
John Redwood, the Conservative MP for Wokingham, said: “We cannot go on like this, with the EU constantly sending new larger bills to the UK when we are desperately trying to control public spending and get our deficit down. For most British taxpayers we would start our cuts with European programmes rather than protecting them. The commission needs to learn to manage the budget."
Matthew Elliott, the head of the Business for Britain pressure group, described further demands from the EU as “unacceptable”.
“It’s time to end the era of the blank cheque in Brussels, when money is promised and member states are simply expected to cough up extra,” he said.
The structure of the EU budget means that the commission can enter into commitments for long-term spending programmes over and above the annual payments made by national Treasuries into the Brussels budget.
EU auditors are concerned that a ceiling capping payments at a maximum of £718 billion between 2014 and 2020 will not be enough to pay existing bills leading to extra contributions from taxpayers across Europe.
“It is a big number but if we anticipate it in future payments, it is less dramatic,” said a commission spokesperson.
The shortfall is known in Brussels jargon as “reste à liquider”, or “outstanding amount” and, while Britain has a veto on going above the maximum payment cap, national contributions are still expected to reach record highs.
Hitting the ceiling would push British EU contributions to above £13billion a year over the next six years, higher that the previous record high £11.3bn paid into Brussels coffers last year.
“If the EU spends right up to the payment ceiling, as now seems to be likely, that means that national contributions will go up,” said an official.
Implicitly conceding that contributions could increase, British officials said that the “bottom line” would be ensuring that spending did not go above the payment ceiling, negotiated at a historically low level by Mr Cameron last year.
“We’re making sure that the EU sticks to the budget limit that the Prime Minister successfully negotiated last year, and which is crucial to controlling the cost of the EU to Britain,” said a diplomat.
“The figure from the European Court of Auditors does not affect the ceiling in the current long term EU budget.”
The spending blackhole is behind deadlocked EU budget talks for 2015 and a request from the commission for an extra £3.7billion in spending for this year.
MEPs are pushing an eight per cent increase in Brussels spending next year, worth £5.4billion to cover unpaid spending commitments at an additional cost for the British taxpayer of £680 million.
The extra demands for money come on top of of controversy over an extra EU surcharge of £1.7billion last month as Britain’s contributions increase because of better economic performance by the British economy compared to the eurozone.
3. The EU has a expenses fraud and spending fraud problem totaling near 6 Billion. a year so far
Its these reasons they British voted to leave the EU. And the uncontrolled ****** qoutas they are forsing on EU members for UNCHECKED immigrents and refugee's.
European Union fraud and errors cost taxpayers £800m last year
EUROPEAN UNION blunders and fraud cost British taxpayers more than £800million last year.
By Martyn Brown
PUBLISHED: 00:00, Wed, Nov 6, 2013
European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso - the EU is wasting British taxpayers' money [GETTY]
It is unacceptable that deep problems with the accounts get swept under the carpet year after year
Robert Oxley, TaxPayers' Alliance
The EU misspent almost £6billion in 2012, official auditors found, as the amount of money squandered on fraudulent, illegal or ineligible projects soared by 23 per cent.
And for the 19th year in a row, the auditors refused to sign off Europe’s annual accounts.
The spending watchdog found that, overall, 4.8 per cent of the EU’s £117billion budget was spent in “error” on projects that were either tainted by fraud or ineligible for grants under Brussels’ rules.
This meant £832million of British taxpayers’ contributions was wasted at a time of public spending cuts.
The damning verdict on shambolic spending by Brussels adds further weight to the Daily Express crusade demanding that Britain quits the EU.
Robert Oxley, campaign director of the TaxPayers’ Alliance said: “It is astonishing that the level of fraud in the European Union budget is increasing. It is unacceptable that deep problems with the accounts get swept under the carpet year after year.
“The shameless spinning of the accounts is typical of an organisation run by a political elite more concerned with increasing its power and managing its public image than with providing value for taxpayers’ money.”
In Downing Street, the Prime Minister’s spokesman said: “It shows yet again why it was right we cut the EU budget and it is yet more evidence for the need for reform in Europe.”
European Court Auditors found the “error rate” in EU rural spending, the worst-hit area, had rocketed by 7.9 per cent to £1billion of a £12.6billion budget. The figure rose to 63 per cent of projects directly audited by the watchdog.
In one case, a Polish landowner was paid almost £80,000 a year to maintain 350 acres of uncut grassland for the protection of endangered birds. He only met agreed funding requirements for 14 per cent of the land, while receiving 100 per cent of the payments.
Philip Bradbourn MEP, the Conservative spokesman on Budgetary control, said: “Another year, another story of lax monitoring and shambolic control. Every year it gets worse.
“It is shameful. If you found misappropriation and misspending on this scale in a commercial business, there would be sackings all round. In Brussels, it’s Carry on Squandering.”
Ukip’s Nigel Farage added: “It is time the people of Europe were able to get this albatross off their backs – or at least out of their pockets.”
1. The European mainland banking systems and institutions have a black hole of 714 BILLION Euro's. It is estimated that by 2020 15% of those institutions will cease to exist or be in serious trouble covering losses and debts..
Eurozone banks' £715bn black hole threatens economy: IMF report accuses EU of failing to address huge problems affecting the financial sector
- International Monetary Fund accused the EU of failing to address the huge problems affecting European banks
- It hit out at banks in Greece, Italy, Portugal and 'some large German' banks for not tackling 'non-performing loans'
- Some 15 per cent of banks in advanced countries 'face significant problems', the fund warned
- Also called on the US to fully repair mortgage intermediaries at centre of the 2008 financial crisis
Published: 00:44 BST, 14 April 2016 | Updated: 13:37 BST, 14 April 2016
Banks in the eurozone have a £715billion black hole in their books, posing serious danger to the stability of the European and global economy.
In a hard-hitting report, the International Monetary Fund accused the EU of failing to address the huge problems affecting European banks.
It hit out at banks in Greece, Italy, Portugal and 'some large German' banks for not tackling 'non-performing (bad) loans and excess banking capacity'.
Some 15 per cent of banks in advanced countries, most of them in Europe, 'face significant problems in attaining profitability,' the fund warned.
It also called on the US to fully repair mortgage intermediaries Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac which were at the centre of the 2008 financial crisis.
The International Monetary Fund (pictured, IMF managing director Christine Lagarde) accused the EU of failing to address the huge problems affecting European banks. This woman is also under investigation for fruad...
The IMF's report warns that risks to world financial stability have increased in the last six months and if they are not addressed with urgency 4 per cent could be wiped off global growth by 2021 – the equivalent of one year of world output.
The IMF's top enforcer Jose Vinals said: 'Disruptions to global bond and stock markets could increase the risks of tipping the world into a more serious and prolonged slowdown marked by financial and economic stagnation.'
His words echoed those of Chancellor George Osborne who warned in last month's Budget of a 'dangerous cocktail' of risks.
IMF concerns about the safety of European banking will bolster 'Brexit' campaigners who fear if the UK stays in the EU it may have to pick up part of the bill for Europe's banking implosion.
Mr Vinals, director of the IMF monetary and capital markets department, said the fund would consider the impact of a withdrawal on London's role as Europe's financial centre, when it produces its report card on the UK economy next month.
The fund's decision to continue with its annual inspection of the economy ahead of the EU referendum on June 23 is certain to be seen as controversial. In 2010 it postponed its survey until after the general election for fear of being drawn into the political debate.
Mr Vinals said in Washington: 'If it turns out Britain exits the European Union, given that Britain's banks are able to operate in the EU by using the passport, this is something that will be a significant change for a number of financial institutions that operate in London at an EU level. An exit of Britain from the EU would be a negative shock economically and financially to Britain and to the EU, and that would be negative for confidence including confidence to the City of London as a global financial hub.'
+2
The IMF hit out at banks in Greece, Italy, Portugal and 'some large German' banks for not tackling 'non-performing loans and excess banking capacity'
After a rocky start to 2016, when oil prices were in freefall, financial markets have stabilised in recent weeks. But the IMF is clear that the danger is far from over. Global economic risks have risen, as falling commodity prices and China's slowdown continue to put pressure on credit markets in advanced countries.
Long-term interest rates, viewed as a signal of impending doom, are at record lows in several countries.
The share of government bonds or debts in the eurozone which offer no return or negative returns soared from 33 per cent at the end of last year to 43 per cent in February, foreshadowing the possibility of a slump. There are also concerns that central banks in Europe, Japan and other advanced regions are running out of tools to deal with another drop in financial markets.
The IMF warns that banks in Germany, Italy, Portugal and Spain are the most 'vulnerable' while those in the UK, France and the Netherlands 'may be better positioned'.
Outside Europe the major uncertainty is commodity prices which have fallen 60 per cent, causing recession in emerging economies.
2. Junckers himself was and still is responsible for the Development project funds at the EU . Yet he 'personaly is allowing a 254 BILLION black hole to develope.
UK faces £34bn bill for black hole in EU budget
EU accused of financial mismanagement after auditors find huge black hole in the Brussels budget
The shortfall is known in Brussels jargon as “reste à liquider”, or “outstanding amount” Photo: Alamy
1:53PM GMT 26 Nov 2014
Auditors have identified a black hole in European Union budgets that could lead to extra demands for cash from the British taxpayer of up to £34 billion over the next six years.
David Cameron will be legally obliged to make up a share of a shortfall of £259 billion by 2020 with liabilities for the Treasury estimated at £33.7bn, calculated at the usual rate of Britain’s EU contributions.
The hole in EU spending has been identified by the European Court of Auditors and represents a political disaster for the Prime Minister who has made repeated pledges to bring down the amount Britain pays into Brussels budgets.
“The EU’s ability to just grab money from taxpayers whenever it wants is an outrage. It underlines what is structurally wrong with our relationship under the existing treaties," said Bernard Jenkin MP, the chairman of the House of Commons public administration select committee.
"The UK parliament should decide how much we want to pay the EU not bureaucrats in Brussels."
In a special report earlier this week, EU auditors identified the sum in outstanding bills for legally binding spending commitments made by the European Commission over the last four years.
“Assuming that commitments will not be de-committed, and we don’t see how most of them could, it might be problematic to get this money from member states to finance the expenditure foreseen,” Igor Ludborzs, an EU auditor, told the Euractiv website.
“We don’t see a happy ending. The amounts are getting bigger and bigger.”
Eurosceptic Conservative MPs are "spitting with rage" at the prospect of increased EU contributions and a failure to control Brussels' spending at a time when Britain is making cuts to balance the budget.
“The commission is out of control and needs to be brought back under control. This is a problem with having no real democratic check to the EU. The commission writes cheques without any balances," said Jacob Rees Mogg, Tory MP for North East Somerset and member of the Commons European scrutiny committee.
John Redwood, the Conservative MP for Wokingham, said: “We cannot go on like this, with the EU constantly sending new larger bills to the UK when we are desperately trying to control public spending and get our deficit down. For most British taxpayers we would start our cuts with European programmes rather than protecting them. The commission needs to learn to manage the budget."
Matthew Elliott, the head of the Business for Britain pressure group, described further demands from the EU as “unacceptable”.
“It’s time to end the era of the blank cheque in Brussels, when money is promised and member states are simply expected to cough up extra,” he said.
The structure of the EU budget means that the commission can enter into commitments for long-term spending programmes over and above the annual payments made by national Treasuries into the Brussels budget.
EU auditors are concerned that a ceiling capping payments at a maximum of £718 billion between 2014 and 2020 will not be enough to pay existing bills leading to extra contributions from taxpayers across Europe.
“It is a big number but if we anticipate it in future payments, it is less dramatic,” said a commission spokesperson.
The shortfall is known in Brussels jargon as “reste à liquider”, or “outstanding amount” and, while Britain has a veto on going above the maximum payment cap, national contributions are still expected to reach record highs.
Hitting the ceiling would push British EU contributions to above £13billion a year over the next six years, higher that the previous record high £11.3bn paid into Brussels coffers last year.
“If the EU spends right up to the payment ceiling, as now seems to be likely, that means that national contributions will go up,” said an official.
Implicitly conceding that contributions could increase, British officials said that the “bottom line” would be ensuring that spending did not go above the payment ceiling, negotiated at a historically low level by Mr Cameron last year.
“We’re making sure that the EU sticks to the budget limit that the Prime Minister successfully negotiated last year, and which is crucial to controlling the cost of the EU to Britain,” said a diplomat.
“The figure from the European Court of Auditors does not affect the ceiling in the current long term EU budget.”
The spending blackhole is behind deadlocked EU budget talks for 2015 and a request from the commission for an extra £3.7billion in spending for this year.
MEPs are pushing an eight per cent increase in Brussels spending next year, worth £5.4billion to cover unpaid spending commitments at an additional cost for the British taxpayer of £680 million.
The extra demands for money come on top of of controversy over an extra EU surcharge of £1.7billion last month as Britain’s contributions increase because of better economic performance by the British economy compared to the eurozone.
3. The EU has a expenses fraud and spending fraud problem totaling near 6 Billion. a year so far
Its these reasons they British voted to leave the EU. And the uncontrolled ****** qoutas they are forsing on EU members for UNCHECKED immigrents and refugee's.
European Union fraud and errors cost taxpayers £800m last year
EUROPEAN UNION blunders and fraud cost British taxpayers more than £800million last year.
By Martyn Brown
PUBLISHED: 00:00, Wed, Nov 6, 2013
It is unacceptable that deep problems with the accounts get swept under the carpet year after year
Robert Oxley, TaxPayers' Alliance
The EU misspent almost £6billion in 2012, official auditors found, as the amount of money squandered on fraudulent, illegal or ineligible projects soared by 23 per cent.
And for the 19th year in a row, the auditors refused to sign off Europe’s annual accounts.
The spending watchdog found that, overall, 4.8 per cent of the EU’s £117billion budget was spent in “error” on projects that were either tainted by fraud or ineligible for grants under Brussels’ rules.
This meant £832million of British taxpayers’ contributions was wasted at a time of public spending cuts.
The damning verdict on shambolic spending by Brussels adds further weight to the Daily Express crusade demanding that Britain quits the EU.
Robert Oxley, campaign director of the TaxPayers’ Alliance said: “It is astonishing that the level of fraud in the European Union budget is increasing. It is unacceptable that deep problems with the accounts get swept under the carpet year after year.
“The shameless spinning of the accounts is typical of an organisation run by a political elite more concerned with increasing its power and managing its public image than with providing value for taxpayers’ money.”
In Downing Street, the Prime Minister’s spokesman said: “It shows yet again why it was right we cut the EU budget and it is yet more evidence for the need for reform in Europe.”
European Court Auditors found the “error rate” in EU rural spending, the worst-hit area, had rocketed by 7.9 per cent to £1billion of a £12.6billion budget. The figure rose to 63 per cent of projects directly audited by the watchdog.
In one case, a Polish landowner was paid almost £80,000 a year to maintain 350 acres of uncut grassland for the protection of endangered birds. He only met agreed funding requirements for 14 per cent of the land, while receiving 100 per cent of the payments.
Philip Bradbourn MEP, the Conservative spokesman on Budgetary control, said: “Another year, another story of lax monitoring and shambolic control. Every year it gets worse.
“It is shameful. If you found misappropriation and misspending on this scale in a commercial business, there would be sackings all round. In Brussels, it’s Carry on Squandering.”
Ukip’s Nigel Farage added: “It is time the people of Europe were able to get this albatross off their backs – or at least out of their pockets.”
D
Deleted125623
Guest
World War I significantly damaged the British economy and financial system. Eveb so, in the inter-War era, British living standards were higher than on the Continent, including all the Western European countries (Belgium, France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Italy). British living standard was lower than America, but higher than the Continent. After the War, Britain was slower to recover from the War. War-time rationing continued into the early 1950s. The last rationing ended about the time of Queen Elizabeth's Coronation (1953). And after recovery from the War, British living standards had fallen behind those on the Continent. It is not entirely clear why Britain which was at the turn of the 20th century the world economic leader and major financial center managed to win both world wars, but did so poorly after World War II. BHritain had borrowed enormmous sons to finance the War, but payments to America, the primary debtor, were only partiallyb paid. There was of course considerable war damage, but Germany was even more damaged. A major event after VE Day was the election of Clemet Attlee's Labour Governmrnt committed to extensive and costly social reforms.
Europe in Ruins
When the Germans surendered (May 7), Europe was starving and in ruins. There were refgugees scattered all mover the Continent. The Axis countries were shattered by the fighting and strategic bombing, but enense damage also occurred in the occupied countries and the NAZIs had conscripted millions for slave and ****** labor. Britain was in a much better state comparatively. Most of the British people had a roof over their heads, albeit perhaps not their own roof. The population were not under-nourished, although the diet was very limited. Manyb items such as butter eggs, meat, sugar, fruit, vegetables were in sjort supply. Nor had the the population been displaced to the exten that many other Europeans had been. The evacuated children were largely back with their parents by 1942.
British War Finances
Britain at the turn-of-the 20th century was the richest power in Europe with a vast Empire that helped feed the national treasury. Londom was the center of world finance. Loans from America helped bank role the British war effort. British finances had been weakened by the vast cost of World War I. The Great Depression further weakended the country's finncial position. While Germany lost World War I, it did not pay a substantial part of the reparations. Most of the German payments were money borrowed from America. And the Germans could finance the War by looting the occupied countries. Britain could not do this. And the costs of the War were rapidly depelting the British trasury. Britain to continue the War needed to import food and raw material in addition to armaments made in America. American Neutrality Laws placed this on a "cash and carry" basis. Britain after the fall of France (June 1940) found itself the only country still ar war with Germany. The Battle of Britain (July-Septmber 1940) had prevented invasion, but Britain now had to fight the Germanswho had much of the resources of Western and Central Europe at his disposal and as aesult easily able to finance the War. At the samr time, Britain's financial capability to finance the War was rapidly declining, both reserves and the ability to borrow money. Britain facing bankruptsy turned to the United States. Prime Minister Churcvhill wrote to President Roosevelt (December 1940). President Roosevelt's answer was Lend Lease (March 1941). This in esence was the American commitment to bank role the British war effort. It was in essence a declaration of economic war against NAZI Germany. Hitler and the NAZIs recognized it as such. It mean that Britain could conduct the War indefinitely. (Hitler has his own plan to put Germany in a comprble position--Operastion Barbasrossa, the invasion of the Soviet Union. Yhe Japabese had a similar lan, seizing the Southern Resource Area.) Even with Lend Lease, World War II placed tremendous demands on the British people, Britain would finance the War throiugh donestic taxation and borrowing, both domestic and foreign. Britain borrowed £15.2 billion during the War--a staggering sum at the time. [Sayers, p. 193.] Foreign assetts were sold off in an Imperisal fire sale. The Government intoduced the National Savings Certificates. (Comparable to American War Bonds.) Normally Britain would pay for imports with the export of manufactured goods. But with the economy on a war footing, manufacturing was concereted to war production. Unlike NAZI Germany, Britain in 1940 began waging total war. Production of consumer goods for domestic consumption or export were cut back to the bare minimum. The War would leave Britain with a huge war debt. Britain would end the War as the greatest debtor nation in world history.
Here we go here we go - cheerio....
As I called it, .83 EUR/GBP held support and now its bouncing - yes thx partly to the certainty of the french election being over and still all the uncertainty from UK. The trade call to long EUR/short GBP is making money on the pips. Conviction is even stronger now.
Again Disclaimer: I'm not telling or advising you to do *******... call/talk to your financial advisor and do your own due-diligence, know that risking money in the markets is risky (as Warren Buffett says when you don't do your homework and know what your doing.)
~BBB76
